**A tipping point is a critical threshold that, once crossed, triggers large, accelerating, and often irreversible changes.**
Examples of climate tipping points include:
• The melting of Antarctic and Arctic ice sheets
• The retreat of glaciers
• Disruptions in atmospheric and oceanic circulation patterns
• The thawing of permafrost, releasing stored greenhouse gases
• The destruction of the Amazon rainforest through wildfires and deforestation
• Changes in Earth’s albedo due to shifting storm patterns, cloud cover, and surface reflectivity
**This page refers to Climate Tipping Points. Other pages highlight economic, technological and demographic tipping points that may arrive before the climate changes.**
Climate tipping points are thresholds in Earth’s systems where gradual change pushes a process into self-reinforcing, often irreversible shifts. Research from the IPCC, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, and other climate science institutions suggests multiple tipping elements are destabilizing. Below is a timeline of major tipping points for the United States and globally, ordered by soonest to likely occur, assuming current emissions trajectories continue.
By 2030–2040: Arctic Sea Ice Loss
Summer sea ice in the Arctic is projected to reach near-complete disappearance by the 2030s, possibly as early as the late 2020s during unusually warm years. This is the first major tipping point and has global implications. Loss of reflective ice accelerates warming via albedo feedback, disrupts weather patterns in North America, and destabilizes ecosystems dependent on sea ice.
By 2035–2050: West Antarctic and Greenland Ice Sheet Instability
Portions of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, particularly Thwaites Glacier (“Doomsday Glacier”), are likely to cross an irreversible retreat threshold by mid-century. This would commit the planet to multiple meters of sea-level rise over coming centuries, with early signs appearing this decade. Similarly, parts of Greenland’s ice sheet are on track for tipping between 1.5°C and 2°C of warming, a threshold likely to be reached in the 2030s–2040s.
By 2035–2050: Coral Reef Die-off and Ocean Acidification
Coral reefs are already experiencing mass bleaching events. With 1.5°C warming expected in the 2030s, over 90% of global reefs could die off, causing ecosystem collapse in fisheries that feed hundreds of millions globally. Ocean acidification will further erode marine biodiversity and disrupt carbon cycling.
By 2040–2060: Amazon Rainforest Dieback