Lithium is essential for batteries and modern energy storage systems. With current reserves of approximately 26 million metric tons and annual demand around 180 thousand metric tons, even with a 20 percent recycling rate, affordable lithium supply is projected to last 100 years before economically extractable resources become scarce.
Nickel, widely used in alloys and batteries, has about 95 million metric tons of reserves with annual demand exceeding 3.3 million metric tons. At a 40 percent recycling rate, nickel supply can support current levels for roughly 48 years before economic limits on extraction become critical.
Cobalt is another vital component for high-performance batteries. With global reserves of 7.6 million metric tons and annual demand near 190 thousand metric tons, even at 40 percent recycling efficiency, cobalt’s affordable supply is expected to last about 67 years.
Copper is foundational to industrial civilization for wiring, electronics, and energy infrastructure. With reserves of 870 million metric tons and annual demand of 25 million metric tons, and recycling recovering about 45 percent of copper, economically viable supply is likely sustainable for around 63 years.
Rare Earth Elements, crucial for electronics, magnets, and clean energy technologies, have 120 million metric tons of reserves with 350 thousand metric tons demanded annually. Recycling rates are only about 1 percent, meaning affordable supply could last about 343 years, though economic and environmental constraints will likely shorten this.
Sand, used in concrete, glass, and numerous industrial processes, exists in vast reserves exceeding 100 trillion metric tons. With annual consumption near 50 billion metric tons and negligible recycling, sand remains abundant for over 2,000 years in theory, though regional shortages and extraction costs are emerging issues.
Freshwater is a renewable but increasingly stressed resource. With about 35 million cubic kilometers available and annual withdrawals of roughly 4 thousand cubic kilometers, and only 20 percent effectively recycled, accessible freshwater could sustain global demand for about 11,000 years, but uneven distribution and aquifer depletion present near-term crises in many regions.
Salts used in chemical industries, food, and water treatment have global reserves of about 250 million metric tons with annual consumption of 300 thousand metric tons. Recycling captures about 30 percent of this usage, allowing affordable supply to continue for approximately 1,200 years.
Petroleum and Fossil Fuels, critical to energy systems, have proven reserves of around 1.65 trillion barrels with annual consumption of about 36.5 billion barrels. At just 5 percent recycling or recovery efficiency, affordable oil and fossil fuel supply will likely peak and begin to decline within 45 years, long before total reserves are exhausted due to increasing costs of extraction.
Simon Michaux, a mining and resource sustainability expert, challenges mainstream reserve and longevity estimates for critical materials. He argues that figures based on dividing known reserves by current demand are misleading because they fail to account for declining ore grades, diminishing energy returns, and the scale of materials required to support a full transition to modern electrified systems. Using his perspective, the entry can be revised as follows:
Lithium is essential for batteries and energy storage, but Simon Michaux points out that the reserves often cited do not reflect the actual amount economically accessible. As richer deposits are exhausted, future extraction will require processing vastly more rock for the same yield, increasing costs and environmental strain. With a recycling rate of only 20 percent and rapidly growing demand driven by electric vehicles and grid storage, the practical lithium supply may not last a century as often claimed but could reach critical shortages much earlier, within 30 to 40 years.
Nickel, used in alloys and batteries, faces similar issues. While official figures show 95 million metric tons of reserves, Michaux emphasizes that the high-quality ores are depleting, forcing reliance on lower-grade sources that are far more energy-intensive to refine. Even with 40 percent recycling, affordable nickel supply could fall well short of demand long before the 48-year theoretical mark, potentially leading to severe constraints within 25 to 35 years.
Cobalt, a key battery component, is heavily concentrated in politically unstable regions such as the Democratic Republic of Congo. Michaux notes that supply chains are fragile and reserves of 7.6 million metric tons do not account for declining ore quality or the need to scale production drastically to electrify transportation. The 67-year estimate is optimistic; real-world constraints could bring significant shortages within 20 to 30 years.
Copper underpins all modern electrical infrastructure. While cited reserves of 870 million metric tons sound abundant, Michaux highlights that demand for copper would soar several times over to build a fully renewable energy system. Declining ore grades and long lead times for developing new mines make the 63-year figure unreliable, as peak copper production could occur and create shortages within 30 to 40 years.
Rare earth elements are critical for electronics and renewable technologies, and while the reserves suggest hundreds of years of supply, Michaux stresses that rare earth extraction is energy-intensive and environmentally damaging. Furthermore, because many rare earths are byproducts of other mining operations, scaling supply to meet future demand may not be feasible. With recycling rates of only 1 percent, practical availability could face serious bottlenecks within 40 to 60 years.
Sand, though seemingly abundant, is becoming regionally scarce due to construction booms and ecological limits on riverbed and coastal extraction. Michaux warns that the industrial-grade sand suitable for concrete and glass is not interchangeable with desert sand, making the 2,000-year estimate misleading. Local shortages and global supply pressures could become acute within 20 to 30 years.
Freshwater, though technically renewable, is under severe stress. Michaux emphasizes that aquifer depletion, pollution, and uneven distribution mean that billions of people already face chronic water shortages. While total freshwater volumes suggest millennia of supply, the energy and infrastructure costs to access clean water make this resource effectively constrained now, with worsening scarcity expected within 20 to 40 years.